Stock indices ended another volatile week lower despite the rally Tuesday and Wednesday on hopes that Russia’s claim to remove troops from the Ukraine border were truthful.  By weeks end, it appeared that Russia continues to build up troops and could likely invade Ukraine within days.

Treasury yields were up slightly with the 30-year bond yield up to 2.241% and the 10-Year note at 1.925%.  Crude oil fell to $91.60 a barrel and natural gas rose to $4.440 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index rose to 96.08 and gold rose to $1900.40 an ounce.

In the economic numbers:

• Japan’s gross domestic product rose at a 5.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter. 
• China reported:
  • Producer prices rose 9.1% in January from a year earlier, down from 10.3% in December.
  • Consumer prices rose 0.9% from a year earlier in January.
• U.K. reported:
  • Home prices in December were up 10.8% for the year.
  • Consumer prices in January have risen 5.5% from a year ago, up from 5.4% year over year in December.
• The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose 6.7% in January versus September but were down 2.3% from January 2021.  The January increase was likely due to people rushing to get low mortgage rates.  Mortgage rates have been increasing this year and the 30 rate is now just shy of 4.0%.
• The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 3.8% in January.  This follows a revised 2.5% drop in December due to early holiday shopping.  The January increase happened despite a 0.9% drop in restaurants and bars spending. 
• The Labor Department reported :
  • The producer-price index rose 1.0% in the month of January and has risen 9.7% from a year earlier as supply chain issues continue to impact prices. 
    • January’s rise was a sharp increase from the 0.4% rise in December. 
    • Over the past two years producer-prices have risen an average of 5.6%. 
    • Excluding volatile food and energy, producer prices rose 0.8% in January.
  • First time claims for unemployment were 248,000, up from the prior week’s revised 225,000. 
  • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, fell to 243,250.
  • Continuing claims fell to 1.593MM in the week ending February 5^th .  
  • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf .
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf .  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude oil was unchanged at 11.6MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage fell 190BN cubic feet and is below the 5-year average at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of active oil rigs rose 4 to 520.  The number of active natural gas rigs was rose 6 to 124.

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Loren C. Rex, CFP^®, MA                                                                     Erik A Smith, AIF®

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 These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice.  The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.