Major stock indices finished the week in positive territory, with the Russell 2000 leading the gains while Emerging Markets trailed. Economic data showed a slowing economy: ADP reported a 32,000 decline in private payrolls for November, and S&P Global PMIs signaled slowing growth both in the U.S. and abroad. Inflation showed a bit of relief as the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year over year—slightly below expectations. Together, these indicators boosted expectations that the FED may cut rates again tomorrow.
Although government economic reports continue to be released, many remain delayed, adding uncertainty to the overall outlook.
Market & Rate Highlights
Treasury Yields (Higher on the Week)
- 30-year: 4.793%
- 10-year: 4.140%
Mortgage Rates
- Average 30-year (Freddie Mac): 6.19% (lower)
Commodities & Currency
- Crude oil: $60.09 per barrel (higher)
- Natural gas: $5.295 (higher)
- U.S. dollar index: 98.99 (lower)
- Gold: $4,230.90 per ounce (higher)
Marklines November Auto Sales
- Nearly unchanged from October.
- Down 6.5% from last November.
S&P Global November Purchasing Manager’s Indices
(>50 = expansion, <50 = contraction)
United States
- Manufacturing: 52.5 → 52.2
- Services: 54.8 → 51.1
North America
- Mexico manufacturing: 49.5 → 47.3
- Canada manufacturing: 49.6 → 48.4
- Canada services: 50.5 → 44.3
Asia
- China manufacturing: 50.6 → 49.9
- China services: 52.6 → 52.1
- Japan manufacturing: 48.2 → 48.7
- Japan services: 53.1 → 53.2
Europe
- Eurozone manufacturing: 50.0 → 49.6
- Eurozone services: 53.0 → 53.6
Federal Reserve Data
Industrial Production (September)
- Overall: +0.1%
- Manufacturing: Unchanged; +1.5% YoY
- Mining: Unchanged; +2.8% YoY
- Utilities: +1.1%; +1.4% YoY
Consumer Credit (October)
- Overall: +2.2% annual rate
- Revolving credit: +4.9%
- Non-revolving credit: +1.2%
Commerce Department
Manufactured Goods Orders (September)
- Monthly: +0.2%
- Year-over-year: +3.5%
Personal Income & Spending (September vs. August)
- Personal income: +0.4%
- Disposable income: +0.3%
- Real disposable income: +0.1%
- Personal consumption (PCE): +0.3%
- Real PCE: Unchanged
- PCE price index: +0.3% MoM; +2.8% YoY
- Core PCE: +0.2% MoM; +2.8% YoY
Labor Department
Import Price Index (September)
- Monthly: Unchanged
- Year-over-year: +0.3%
- Core: +0.2% MoM; +0.8% YoY
Export Price Index (September)
- Monthly: Unchanged
- Year-over-year: +3.8%
- Core: Unchanged MoM; +3.7% YoY
Jobless Claims (Week Ending Nov. 15)
- Initial claims: 191,000 (–27,000)
- Four-week average: 214,750 (–1,000)
- Total unemployed: 1,939,000 (–4,000)
Energy & Industry Data
EIA Petroleum Report
- U.S. crude output: 13.815 million barrels/day
- Natural gas storage: Down 12 bcf, but remains above levels from the past five years.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
- Oil rigs: +6 to 413
- Gas rigs: –1 to 129
If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
