Markets wrapped up the week mixed, but not without drama. After several days of selling pressure, stocks rebounded on Thursday and Friday as inflation data came in cooler than expected—giving investors some welcome relief.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October and November showed inflation rising at a slower pace than forecast. While this sparked a late-week rally, economists cautioned that the data may be somewhat distorted due to gaps caused by the recent government shutdown. Even so, the Nasdaq 100 finished the week with the strongest gain, while developed international markets posted the largest decline.
Jobs data added to the uncertainty.
Employment reports for October and November told a mixed story, with a sharp decline in October followed by modest gains in November. As with inflation, these figures were influenced by the shutdown and subsequent reopening, making it harder to draw firm conclusions about labor market momentum.
Global central banks remained active:
- The Bank of England cut its benchmark rate from 4.0% to 3.75%.
- The European Central Bank held its deposit rate steady at 2.0% while raising growth expectations for 2026 and 2027.
- The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, citing persistent inflation pressures.
Market & Rate Highlights
Treasury Yields (Higher on the Week)
- 30-year: 4.625% (lower)
- 10-year: down to 4.152% (lower)
Mortgage Rates
- Average 30-year (Freddie Mac): 6.21% (lower)
Commodities & Currency
- Crude oil: $56.65 per barrel (lower)
- Natural gas: $4.008 (lower)
- U.S. dollar index: 98.71 (higher)
- Gold: $4,370.10 per ounce (higher)
Housing Snapshot – National Association of Realtors (November)
- Existing home sales rose 0.5% month over month, but are down 1.0% from a year ago
- Inventory of unsold homes fell 5.9%
- Median home price increased to $409,200, up 1.2% year over year
Labor Department
Jobs
- October -105,000.
- November +64,000.
- Payrolls have changed little since April.
- Unemployment rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021.
- Hourly wages rose 5 cents in November and were up 3.5% year over year.
Consumer Price Index
- Rose 0.2%, seasonally adjusted, for the months of October and November and 2.7% year over year.
- Excluding volatile food and energy, up 0.2% and 2.7% from a year ago, a four year low.
Jobless Claims (Week Ending Dec 6th)
- Initial claims: 224,000 (-13,000)
- Four-week average: 217,500 (+500)
- Total unemployed: 1,897,000 (-67,000)
Energy & Industry Data
EIA Petroleum Report
- U.S. crude output fell to 13.843 million barrels/day.
- Natural gas storage: Fell 167 bcf and is about at the average during the past five years on this date.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
- Oil rigs: -8 to 406
- Gas rigs: Unchanged at 127
If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators
