Blog Post

Markets Navigate Trade Shifts, AI Crosscurrents, and Sticky Inflation

Markets wrapped up the week on a mixed note. Most major U.S. indices finished modestly higher, while developed international and emerging markets posted particularly strong gains. The notable exception was the Nasdaq 100, which declined as technology shares faced renewed pressure.

The week began with fresh trade uncertainty. New 15% tariffs were implemented under a different legal authority, with a 150-day window before expiration. As markets digest both the policy shift and its temporary nature, volatility around trade headlines is likely to remain elevated.

Technology shares were at the center of the action. Software companies sold off amid concerns that rapid advances in artificial intelligence could disrupt traditional business models. Interestingly, some AI infrastructure and service providers also pulled back, as investors weighed the significant capital investment required to scale AI capabilities. In short, the market is recalibrating expectations across the tech ecosystem.

On the inflation front, Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed wholesale inflation accelerated in January. That development tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near term, reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative on interest rates.

While uncertainty around trade policy, AI adoption, and inflation is creating short-term swings, markets continue to adjust and reprice as new information emerges. Periods like this often reward discipline, diversification, and a long-term perspective.

Please reach out if you’d like to discuss how these developments may impact your portfolio strategy.

Treasury Yields

  • 30-year Treasury: 4.661% (lower)
  • 10-year Treasury: 4.004% (lower)

Mortgage Rates

  • Average 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 5.98% (lower)

Commodities & Currency

  • Crude oil: $65.29 per barrel (lower)
  • Natural gas: $2.827 (lower)
  • U.S. dollar index: 96.80 (lower)
  • Gold: $5,201.40 per ounce (higher)
  • Silver $90.125 per ounce (higher)

Commerce Department

Manufactured Goods Orders

  • -0.7% December, +2.7% November-Revised

Wholesale Inventories +0.2% (December)

Construction Spending

  • +0.3% (December, Seasonally Adjusted)
  • 2025 Vs 2024 +1.4%
    • Private +0.5% (December), -0.7% year
    • Public +0.5% (December), +3.6% year

Labor Department

Jobless Claims (prior week)

  • New Claims 212,000 (higher)
    • 4-week Moving Average 220,250 (higher)
  • Total Claims 1,833,000 (lower)

Producer-Price Index

  • January +0.5%
    • Services +0.8%
    • Goods -0.3%
  • 12 months +2.9%
  • January (excluding volatile food, energy and trade services) +0.3%
  • Core 12 months +3.4%

                Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Energy & Industry Data

Energy Information Administration

  • Weekly Oil Production 13.702 million barrels (lower)
  • Natural Gas Storage -52 billion CuFt, near the average for this time of year over the past 5 years.

Baker Hughes Rig Count

  • Oil rigs: -2 at 407
  • Gas rigs: +1 at 134

Earnings

Factset reported with 96% of S&P 500 companies reporting, that the blended earnings growth in Q4 was 14.2%.

(All data is as of the week of 02/23/2026)

If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011626.pdf

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

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