It was a week packed with market-moving headlines. Investors digested reports of potential military tensions with Iran, slower fourth-quarter GDP growth, a Supreme Court ruling challenging the President’s tariffs, and a higher-than-expected PCE inflation reading. Each development added to short-term volatility and weighed on sentiment at times.
Tariff uncertainty remains a key theme. While policy direction is still evolving, expectations are shifting toward lower overall tariff levels and a more targeted approach than previously proposed.
The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes also drew attention. Some members signaled that additional rate increases could be considered if inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target—an outlook that caught traders off guard and reinforced the importance of upcoming inflation data.
Despite the heavy flow of news, markets showed resilience. Major indices finished the week higher, led by strong gains in emerging markets.
As always, we remain focused on navigating short-term noise while keeping portfolios aligned with long-term objectives.
Treasury Yields
- 30-year Treasury: 4.724% (higher)
- 10-year Treasury: 4.086% (lower)
Mortgage Rates
- Average 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.01% (lower)
Commodities & Currency
- Crude oil: $66.49 per barrel (higher)
- Natural gas: $3.043 (lower)
- U.S. dollar index: 96.80 (lower)
- Gold: $5,106.80 per ounce (higher)
- Silver $83.765 per ounce (higher)
Federal Reserve Industrial Production
- +0.7% January, +3.2% 12 months
- Manufacturing
- +0.6 January, +2.4% 12 months
- Mining – Including oil and gas production
- -0.2% January, +2.5% 12 months
- Utilities
- +2.1% January, +1.1% 12 months
Commerce Department
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Durable Goods Orders
New Housing
Trade Deficit +32.6% (December)
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption
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Labor Department
Jobless Claims (prior week)
- New Claims 206,000 (lower)
- 4-week Moving Average 219,000 (lower)
- Total Claims 1,869,000 (higher)
Energy & Industry Data
Energy Information Administration
- Weekly Oil Production 13.735 million barrels (higher)
- Natural Gas Storage -144 billion CuFt below average for this time of year over the past 5 years.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
- Oil rigs: unchanged at 409
- Gas rigs: unchanged at 133
(All data is as of the week of 02/16/2026)
If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
