Markets opened the week with optimism after Donald Trump signaled a five-day pause in potential strikes on Iranian power infrastructure and referenced “productive” backchannel discussions. That initial relief rally, however, proved short-lived.
While intermediaries continued to relay proposals between the U.S. and Iran, no verifiable direct talks materialized. Although the pause was ultimately extended to 10 days, investors grew increasingly skeptical about the likelihood of a near-term resolution. By week’s end, geopolitical uncertainty had reasserted itself as the dominant market driver.
Energy markets remained under significant pressure. The continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for roughly 20% of global oil supply—has kept crude prices elevated and volatility high. In addition, reduced exports of urea, a key fertilizer input, are beginning to ripple through agricultural markets, raising concerns about higher global food prices in the months ahead.
Against this backdrop, inflation expectations have firmed. Traders are now reassessing the policy outlook from the Federal Reserve, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility that the next move could be a rate hike rather than the previously anticipated cuts. This shift has put additional pressure on equities, particularly growth-oriented sectors.
All major indices closed the week lower, led by a sharp decline in the Nasdaq-100. Until there is greater clarity on both the geopolitical front and monetary policy, markets are likely to remain volatile and headline-driven.
Treasury Yields
- 30-year Treasury: 4.974% (higher)
- 10-year Treasury: 4.433% (higher)
Mortgage Rates
- Average 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.38% (higher)
Commodities & Currency
- Crude oil: $99.97 per barrel (higher)
- Natural gas: $3.028 (lower)
- U.S. dollar index: 100.13 (higher)
- Gold: $4,508.40 per ounce (lower)
- Silver $70.40 per ounce (lower)
Commerce Department
- Construction Spending (January) –0.3%
Labor Department
Jobless Claims (prior week)
- New Claims 210,000 (higher)
- 4-week Moving Average 210,500
- Total Claims 1,819,000 (lower)
Productivity +1.8% Q4 (revised lower)
- Real hourly compensation +6.3% Q4 and +2.4% 2025 (revised higher)
- Unit labor costs +4.4% Q4 and +1.3% 2025 (revised higher)
Import Prices +1.3% (February and 12 months)
- Fuel imports +1.6%
- Non-fuel imports +0.2%
Export Prices +0.7% (February) and 3.5% (12 months)
Energy & Industry Data
Energy Information Administration
- Weekly Oil Production 13.657 million barrels (lower)
- Natural Gas Storage -54 billion CuFt, about average for this time of year over the past 5 years.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
- Oil rigs: -5 at 409
- Gas rigs: -4 at 127
(All data was released the week of 03/23/2026)
If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
