Stocks surged midweek following news of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and its counterparts, lifting major indices and fueling particularly strong gains in emerging markets.
While the pause in conflict provided a boost to investor sentiment, some uncertainty remains. The Strait of Hormuz is still largely closed, keeping pressure on global energy markets. Upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and Iran—set to take place in Pakistan—will focus on reopening this critical shipping route and addressing Iran’s nuclear program.
Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting highlighted growing concern among some policymakers. Officials noted that a prolonged conflict could add upward pressure on inflation and potentially weaken labor market conditions. Supporting that concern, March’s Consumer Price Index came in higher than expected, driven in part by rising gasoline prices.
As always, we continue to monitor both geopolitical developments and economic data closely, as they remain key drivers of market direction in the near term.
Please reach out if you’d like to discuss how these developments may impact your portfolio.
Treasury Yields
- 30-year Treasury: 4.914% (higher)
- 10-year Treasury: 4.323% (lower)
Mortgage Rates
- Average 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.37% (lower)
Commodities & Currency
- Crude oil: $96.17 per barrel (much lower)
- Natural gas: $2.652 (lower)
- U.S. dollar index: 98.68 (lower)
- Gold: $4,782.50 per ounce (higher)
- Silver $76.52 per ounce (higher)
Federal Reserve Consumer Credit (February, annualized)
- Total +2.2%
- Revolving +0.6%
- Non-revolving +2.8%
Commerce Department – Durable Goods Orders -1.4% (February)
- Excluding Transportation +0.8%
- Excluding Defense -1.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures +0.5% (February)
- PCE Price Index +0.4% (February), 2.8% Year over year
- Excluding volatile food and energy +0.4% (February) and 3.0% (12 months). This is the FED’s preferred measure of inflation.
- Real PCE +0.1%
- Personal Income -0.1%
4th Quarter GDP (Revision)
- +0.5% Annual Rate, down from +0.7% previously and down from +4.4% in Q3.
- Wholesale Inventories +0.8% (February)
Jobless Claims (prior week)
- New Claims 219,000 (higher)
- 4-week Moving Average 209,500 (higher)
- Total Claims 1,794,000 (lower)
Consumer Price Index +0.9% March, +3.3% 12 months
- Excluding volatile food and energy +0.2% March, 18.9% 12 months
- Gasoline +21.2% March, +12.5% 12 months
Energy & Industry Data
Energy Information Administration
- Weekly Oil Production 13.596 million barrels (lower)
- Natural Gas Storage +50 billion CuFt, above average for this time of year over the past 5 years.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
- Oil rigs: unchanged at 411
- Gas rigs: -3 at 127
(All data was released the week of 04/06/2026)
If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
