Markets delivered another headline-grabbing week, marked by sharp swings and a notable shift in leadership. Investors rotated out of companies investing heavily in data centers and into more defensive sectors, while Friday brought a welcome tailwind as the January Consumer Price Index came in lower than December — easing inflation concerns and lifting sentiment into the weekend.

Performance diverged globally. Developed international and emerging market indices finished higher, while major U.S. indices ended modestly lower amid the sector rotation.

Key economic highlights this week:

• Stronger-than-expected jobs report: January payrolls rose by 130,000 — well above last year’s monthly average of roughly 15,000. The labor market continues to show resilience.
• Housing slowdown: Existing home sales declined sharply in January, likely impacted by harsher winter weather than anticipated.
• Inflation relief: The softer CPI reading boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve may have room to consider additional rate cuts later this year.

As markets continue to recalibrate around inflation trends, monetary policy expectations, and sector leadership shifts, volatility may persist. We remain focused on positioning portfolios to navigate these rotations while capturing opportunities across global markets

Treasury Yields

• 30-year Treasury: 4.710% (lower)
• 10-year Treasury: 4.125% (lower)

Mortgage Rates

• Average 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.09% (lower)

Commodities & Currency

• Crude oil: $62.73 per barrel (lower)
• Natural gas: $3.175 (lower)
• U.S. dollar index: 96.80 (lower)
• Gold: $5,022.50 per ounce (higher)

• Silver $77.77 per ounce (higher)

Treasury Department Monthly Budget Report              Source: U.S. Treasury

National Association of Realtors

• Existing home sales -8.4% (January) and -4.4% year over year.
• Inventory of unsold homes -0.8%.
• Median price of existing home sale -0.9% to $396,800 (lower)

Commerce Department

Labor Department

Employment costs rose 0.7% in Q4 and 3.4% in 2025.

Import Prices (December) +0.1%, Excluding fuels +0.2%  (does not include the effect of tariffs)

Export Prices (December) +0.3%

Consumer Price Index

• +0.2% (January), +2.4% (12 months)
• Excluding volatile food and energy +0.3% (January), +2.5% (12 months)
• Biggest increase (12 months), Natural Gas +9.8%.
• Biggest decrease (12 months), Gasoline -7.5%.

                  Source: Department of Labor

Monthly Jobs Report

• The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, the largest gain since December 2024.
  • Unemployment fell to 4.3%.
  • Average hourly earnings +0.4% January and +3.7% year over year.

Jobless Claims (prior week)

• New Claims 227,000 (lower)
  • 4-week Moving Average 219,500 (higher)
• Total Claims 1,862,000 (higher)

Energy & Industry Data

Energy Information Administration

• Weekly Oil Production 13.713 million barrels
• Natural Gas Storage -249 billion CuFt below average for this time of year over the past 5 years.

Baker Hughes Rig Count

• Oil rigs: -2 to 409
• Gas rigs: +3 to 133

Q4 Corporate Earnings

• With 74% of S&P 500 companies reporting the blended earnings growth rate year over year is 13.2%.

If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011626.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/eci/latest-numbers.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf