Markets delivered a dramatic week, marked by sharp swings and a powerful rally on Friday following a three-day selloff. Despite the late rebound, major indices finished the week mixed, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 posting the largest decline.
Technology and software stocks were under notable pressure. While artificial intelligence promises substantial long-term productivity gains, it is also disrupting the financial and structural foundations of many established software companies. At the same time, AI-focused stocks have pulled back amid concerns that massive near-term spending on data centers could weigh on earnings before the benefits fully materialize.
In the energy markets, last week’s arctic blast drove the largest natural gas storage drawdown ever recorded in EIA data going back to 2002—highlighting just how extreme the recent cold snap was.
On the economic front, the brief government shutdown delayed the release of the January jobs report from Friday to Wednesday. In the meantime, we are highlighting the private ADP employment report below. While it excludes federal, state, and local government jobs, it pointed to softening momentum in private-sector hiring.
We’ll continue to monitor how these crosscurrents—AI investment, energy volatility, and labor market trends—shape markets in the weeks ahead.
Treasury Yields
- 30-year Treasury: 4.856% (lower)
- 10-year Treasury: 4.211% (lower)
Mortgage Rates
- Average 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.11% (higher)
Commodities & Currency
- Crude oil: $63.48 per barrel (lower)
- Natural gas: $3.394 (lower)
- U.S. dollar index: 96.80 (lower)
- Gold: $4,979.30 per ounce (lower)
- Silver $77.10 per ounce (sharply lower)
S&P Global Purchasing Manager Indices January – >50=expansion, <50=contraction
- US Manufacturing PMI 52.8 (higher)
- US Services PMI 52.7 (higher)
- China Manufacturing PMI 50.3 (higher)
- China Services PMI 52.3 (higher)
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 49.5 (higher)
- Eurozone Services PMI 51.6 (lower)
- Japan Manufacturing PMI 51.5 (higher)
- Japan Services PMI 53.7 (higher)
- Canada Manufacturing PMI 50.4 (higher)
- Canada Services PMI 45.8 (lower)
- Mexico Manufacturing PMI 46.3 (higher)
ADP Private Payrolls (January)
- 22,000 Jobs created
- Education and Healthcare +74,000
- Professional and Business Services -57,000
Commerce Department
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Trade Deficit (November delayed) +94.6% from October
Wholesale Inventories (November, delayed)
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Labor Department
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover (December)
- Job Openings – 6,542,000, a five-year low
Source: US Department of Labor
- Hires 5.3MM
- Total Separations 5.3MM
- Quits 3.2MM
Jobless Claims (prior week)
- New Claims 231,000 (higher)
- 4-week Moving Average 212,250 (higher)
- Total Claims 1,844,000 (higher)
Energy & Industry Data
Energy Information Administration
- Weekly Oil Production 13.870 million barrels (increase)
- Natural Gas Storage -362 billion CuFt at about average for this time of year over the past 5 years.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
- Oil rigs: +1 to 412
- Gas rigs: +5 to 130
Q4 Corporate Earnings
- With 59% of S&P 500 companies reporting the blended earnings growth rate year over year is 13.0%.
If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators
