Major stock indices had modest losses for the week as both the consumer price index and the producer price index came in higher than expected.  The higher inflation numbers coupled with higher shipping costs due to Red Sea attacks are likely to delay FED rate cuts.

Treasury bond yields rose with the 30-year bond yield at 4.430% and the 10-Year note at 4.306%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.74%.  Crude oil rose to $81.03 a barrel and natural gas fell to $1.663 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index rose to 103.45 and gold fell to $2162.90 an ounce.

In economic reports this week:

• The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.1% in February after falling 0.5% in January.
  • Manufacturing rose 0.8%.
  • Mining, including oil and gas production rose 2.2%.
  • Utilities fell 7.5%.
  • From a year ago industrial production has fallen 0.2%.
• The Labor Department reported:
  • The consumer price index rose 0.4% in February, up from 0.3% January.
    • From a year ago the CPI was up 3.2% in February, up from 3.1% year over year in January.
    • Less volatile food and energy, the CPI was also up 0.4% in February and 3.8% from a year earlier.

                Source: U.S. Department of Labor

• • Producer prices rose 0.6% in February.
    • From a year ago producer prices have risen 1.6%.
    • Excluding volatile food and energy, producer prices rose 0.4% in February and are up 2.8% from a year ago.
  • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 209,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
    • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, was 208,500, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised level. 
    • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf .
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf .  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude oil fell from 13.2MM BPD to 13.1MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage fell 9BN cubic feet and was above the highest level during the past five years at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs rose 6 to 510 and the number of natural gas rigs rose 1 to 116.

Please call us if you have any questions.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release – 2024 M01 Results (bls.gov)

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/