Blog Post

Stocks Continue to Gain on Signs of Slowing Inflation

Major stock indices ended the week higher with a substantial gain in the Dow Jones 30 Industrials.  Keep in mind that the Dow only contains 30 stocks so sharp gains in one or two stocks can have a dramatic effect in the index.  Stocks rallied as there were ongoing signs of slowing inflation.  OPEC+ met an agreed to cut an additional 900,000 barrels per day in a voluntary cut.  Angola has already stated it will not be cutting production.  The effect of this will likely not drive oil prices higher but will may decrease the amount of the decline.

Treasury bond yields fell with the 30-year bond yield at 4.397% and the 10-Year note at 4.215%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 7.22%.  Crude oil fell to $74.21 a barrel and natural gas fell to $2.768 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index fell to 103.22 and gold rose to $2090.50 an ounce.

  • S&P Global released its manufacturing purchasing managers indices for November.  Keep in mind that anything over 50 represents expansion and anything under 50 represents contraction.
    • U.S. fell from 50.0 to 49.4.
    • China rose from 49.5 to 50.7.
    • Eurozone rose from 43.1 to 44.2
    • Japan fell from 48.7 to 48.3.
    • Mexico rose from 52.1 to 52.5.
    • Canada fell from 48.6 to 47.7.
  • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was up 3.9% in September from a year ago.  This was up from 2.5% year over year in August.
  • The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales dropped 1.5% in October to the lowest on records starting in 2001.  This level was worse than during the financial crisis but for very different reasons.  As mortgage rates exceeded 8% in October, many home owners had chosen not to move, greatly limiting the supply of homes for sale.
  • Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s GDP shrunk at a 1.1% annualized rate in the third quarter following a 1.4% rise in the 2nd quarter.
  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis:
    • Revised its measure of gross domestic product in the third quarter to 5.2% up from its initial estimate of 4.9%.
    • Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in October.
      • The PCE price index was unchanged.
      • Excluding volatile food and energy the PCE index rose 0.2%.
      • From a year ago, the PCE index rose 3.0%, down from 3.4% year over year in September.
      • Excluding volatile food and energy, the PCE index rose 3.5% year over year, down from 3.7% in September.  This is the FED’s preferred measure of inflation.
      • Personal incomes rose 0.2% in October.
  • The Commerce Department reported:
    • Sales of new single-family homes fell a seasonally adjusted 5.6% in October following a revised 8.6% gain in September.
      • From a year ago, home sales have risen 17.7%.
      • The median price of a new home was $409,300.
    • Construction spending rose 0.6% in October.
  • The Labor Department reported:
    • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 218,000, an increase from the previous week’s revised level of 211,000.
      • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, was 220,000, an decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised level. 
      • For the full unemployment report go here: .
  • The EIA weekly oil report is here: .  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
    • Field production of crude oil was unchanged at 13.2MM BPD.
    • Natural gas storage rose 10BN cubic feet and is above the 5-year average at this time of year.
  • Baker Hughes reported the number of active oil rigs was rose 5 to 505.  The number of active natural gas rigs fell 1 to 116.

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Loren C. Rex, CFP®, MA                                                                      Erik A Smith, AIF®

Founder / Emeritus                                                                            President & C.E.O.                                  

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.



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