Markets swung sharply this week as investors tried to balance worries about high valuations with shifting expectations for a possible Fed rate cut in December. Those expectations moved almost daily as Federal Reserve members made their final comments before entering the pre-meeting blackout period. Adding to the uncertainty: much of the federal economic data the Fed relies on remains delayed and may not be fully updated before the meeting.
Even with a solid rally on Friday, major indices ended the week mixed. The Russell 2000 managed a modest gain, while the other major indices finished lower—led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which saw the biggest pullback.
Meanwhile, government agencies continued releasing long-delayed economic reports, though it will take weeks for the backlog to clear.
Market & Rate Highlights
Treasury yields fell: 30-year at 4.721%, 10-year at 4.072%
- Average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.26% (Freddie Mac)
- Crude oil slipped to $57.66 per barrel
- Natural gas rose to $4.747
- U.S. dollar index climbed to 100.26
- Gold dipped to $4,060.70 per ounce
Last Week’s Economic Updates From the Commerce Department:
- Construction Spending (August)
- Up 0.2% for the month; down 1.6% from last year
- Private construction: +0.3%
- Public construction: unchanged
- Manufactured Goods Orders (August)
- Up 1.4% after a 1.3% decline in July
- Up 1.4% after a 1.3% decline in July
- Trade Deficit (August)
- Fell 23.8% as imports declined and exports ticked higher
- Fell 23.8% as imports declined and exports ticked higher
- Wholesale Inventories (August)
- Unchanged
- Unchanged
From the Labor Department:
- September Jobs Report
- +119,000 jobs, beating expectations
- Prior months revised downward:
- August: now –4,000
- July: now +72,000
- Combined revisions: –33,000
- Unemployment Rate
- Rose to 4.4% in September
- Jobless Claims (week ending Nov. 15)
- 222,000 initial claims (–8,000)
- Four-week average: 224,250 (–3,000)
- Total unemployed: 1,974,000 (+28,000)
Energy & Industry Data
- EIA Petroleum Report
- U.S. crude production slightly lower: 13.834MM barrels/day
- Natural gas storage fell 14 billion cubic feet, still at a five-year seasonal high
- Baker Hughes Rig Count
- Oil rigs: +2 to 419
- Gas rigs: +2 to 127
- With 95% of S&P 500 companies reporting, FactSet shows blended earnings growth at a solid 13.4%.
Corporate Earnings
- With 95% of S&P 500 companies reporting, FactSet shows blended earnings growth at a solid 13.4%.
If you have any questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
