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Stocks End Lower as Rising Yields and Oil Prices Pressure Markets

Major market indices finished the week lower despite a strong rally on Friday, as investors continued to weigh rising bond yields, elevated oil prices, and the ongoing shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The Nasdaq 100 experienced the largest decline, while losses among the other major indices were more modest.

Bond yields were a key concern during the week, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2007 on Tuesday. Several factors are contributing to upward pressure on interest rates:

  1. Heavy government borrowing in the United States and abroad.
  2. Persistently elevated inflation, partly driven by higher oil prices.
  3. Substantial corporate borrowing, including increased spending to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure.

On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bennett announced that the Treasury would begin purchasing longer-term bonds while issuing more short-term debt in an effort to ease upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Unlike quantitative easing, this approach does not involve the Federal Reserve creating money to purchase bonds. Instead, it shifts the composition of government debt toward shorter-term maturities.

While this strategy may help moderate longer-term rates, it could also increase the government’s exposure to future changes in short-term interest rates. If the Federal Reserve eventually raises short-term rates and the yield curve inverts, the cost and risk associated with refinancing a greater share of the national debt could increase.

Meanwhile, the continued shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has kept pressure on global oil markets. Domestic oil producers have been slow to significantly increase production, in part because bringing new wells online can take an estimated 5–12 months. Companies face a difficult decision: increase investment now or wait, given expectations that the conflict disrupting the region could potentially be resolved much sooner.

As attention increasingly turns toward November’s midterm elections, it is worth remembering that political uncertainty does not necessarily translate into poor investment returns. Historically, markets have often performed well during the third year of a presidential term, regardless of the eventual midterm election outcome. Monetary policy, economic growth, corporate earnings, and interest rates have generally played more significant roles in shaping market performance.

While elections can generate considerable emotion and uncertainty, the long-term growth of the financial markets spans numerous administrations and every combination of party control in Washington. For long-term investors, maintaining focus on investment objectives rather than reacting to political headlines has historically been an important part of navigating changing political environments.


Treasury Yields

• 30-year Treasury: 5.277% (higher)

• 10-year Treasury: 4.741% (higher)

Mortgage Rates

• Average 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.65% (lower)

Commodities & Currency

  • U.S. dollar index: 98.81 (lower)
  • Crude oil: $87.16 per barrel (higher)
  • Natural gas: $2.770 (higher)
  • Gold: $4,682.50 per ounce (higher)
  • Silver $69.625 per ounce (higher)

Federal Reserve

Industrial Production – July

  • -0.2% month, +1.1% year
  • Manufacturing
    • +0.2% month, +1.2% year
  • Mining – Including oil and gas production
    • +0.2% month, +1.2% year
  • Utilities
    • +0.5% month, +0.7% year

Commerce Department

Monthly New Residential Construction – July

  • Housing starts
  • -12.4% month, -13.5% year
  • Permits – A sign of future housing starts
    • -5.0% month, +3.1% year

Labor Department

Import and Export Price Indices – July

  • Import prices -0.4% month, +5.9% year
    • Excluding Fuel +0.4% month, +4.5% year
  • Export prices -1.3% month, +8.2% year

Jobless Claims (prior week)

  • New Claims 206,000 (lower)
  • 4-week Moving Average 204,000 (higher)
  • Total Claims 1,799,000 (higher)

Energy & Industry Data

Energy Information Administration

  • Weekly Oil Production 13.830 million barrels (higher)
  • Natural Gas Storage +16 billion Ft3, above average for this time of year over the past 5 years.

Baker Hughes Rig Count

  • Oil rigs: -1 at 454
  • Gas rigs: -3 at 125

(All data was released the week of 08/17/2026)

(All monthly statistics are seasonally adjusted unless stated otherwise).

If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

Gross Domestic Product | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

FactSet Earnings Insight

U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes summary – 2026 M07 Results