Major stock indices ended the holiday shortened week with modest gains. There was little in the way of economic news this week. Looking forward to January, we will start to receive 4th quarter earnings reports. At this point, the markets have priced in as soft landing in the economy and FED rate cuts by March of next year. Any data pointing to a recession, a delay in rate cuts or further tightening by the FED will likely be a negative for the markets.
Treasury bond yields fell with the 30-year bond yield at 4.036% and the 10-Year note at 3.883%. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.61%. Crude oil fell to $71.39 a barrel and natural gas fell to $2.321 per MMBTUs. The U.S. dollar index fell to 101.36 and gold rose to $2072.80 an ounce.
- S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index rose 0.6% in October and is up 4.77% from a year ago.
- Mastercard reported that U.S. holiday sales (November 1 through December 24) rose 3.1% from the same period last year.
- Online sales rose 6.3%.
- In-Store sales rose 2.2%.
- The Labor Department reported:
- Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 218,000, an increase from the previous week’s revised level of 205,000.
- The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, was 212,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s revised level.
- For the full unemployment report go here: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf .
- Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 218,000, an increase from the previous week’s revised level of 205,000.
- The EIA weekly oil report is here: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf . Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
- Field production of crude oil was unchanged at 13.3MM BPD.
- Natural gas storage fell 87BN cubic feet and above the highest it has been during the past five years at this time of year.
- Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs gained 2 to 500 and the gas rigs was unchanged at 120.
Please call us if you have any questions.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index | S&P Dow Jones Indices (spglobal.com)
