Major stock indices ended the week higher as weakness in the jobs number increased the likelihood of a FED rate cut.  The biggest gains were in the Nasdaq 100.

Treasury bond yields fell with the 30-year bond yield at 4.771% and the 10-Year note at 4.094%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.50%.  Crude oil fell to $62.02 a barrel and natural gas rose to $3.040 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index was unchanged at 97.76 and gold rose to $3642.80 an ounce.

In economic reports last week:

• S&P Global released its seasonally adjusted purchasing managers indices for August.  Keep in mind that anything over 50 represents expansion and anything under 50 represents contraction.
  • U.S. manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 53.0.
  • U.S. services PMI rose from 54.5 to 55.7.
  • China manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 50.5.
  • China services PMI rose from 52.6 to 53.0.
  • Mexico manufacturing PMI rose from 49.1 to 50.2.
  • Canada manufacturing PMI rose from 46.1 in July to 48.3.
  • Canada services PMI fell from 49.3 to 48.6.
  • Japan manufacturing PMI rose from 48.9 to 49.7.
  • Japan services PMI fell from 53.6 to 53.1.
  • Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.7.
  • Eurozone services PMI rose from 51.0 to 50.5.
• The Commerce Department Reported:
  • Construction spending fell 0.1% in July and was 2.8% below the July 2024 level.

• • New orders for manufactured goods fell 1.3% in July.

• • The trade deficit rose 32.5%.
    • Exports rose 0.3%.
    • Imports rose 5.9%.

• The Labor Department reported:
  • Job openings in July fell to 7.18MM, the lowest level in 10 months.
    • Total separations were 5.3MM or 3.3% of the workforce.
      • There were 1.8MM layoffs or 1.1% of the workforce.
      • Quits were 3.2MM or 2.0% of the workforce.
    • The was about one opening per unemployed worker, the lowest since 2021.

• • Non-farm productivity growth in the second quarter was revised up to a 3.3%.  From a year ago productivity has increased 1.5%.
    • Output increased 4.4%.
    • Hours worked increased 1.1%.
    • Unit labor costs increased 1.0%.
    • Hourly compensation increased 4.3%.

              Source:  Department of Labor

• • The U.S. added 22,000 jobs in August below economists’ estimates of 75,000.
    • The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.2% to 4.3%.  This is the highest since 2021.
    • Manufacturing jobs fell 12,000.
    • Healthcare and social assistance jobs rose 46,800.
    • July was revised up to 79,000.
    • June was revised down to a loss of 13,000 jobs.
    • Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% to $36.53.
    • The average workweek was 34.2 hours.
  • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 237,000, up 8,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level.
    • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, were 231,000, an increase of 2500 from the previous week’s unrevised level.
    • Recurring claims were 1.940MM a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
  • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report.  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude oil fell from 13.439MM BPD to 13.423MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage rose 55BN cubic feet and was above its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs rose 2 to 414 and the number of natural gas rigs fell to 118.

Please call us if you have any questions.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-july-2025#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20Census%20Bureau%20and,%2B32.5%25%C2%B0

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm