Stocks posted gains for the first four days of the week boosted by an upward revision in 2^nd quarter GDP.  However, stocks sold off on Friday after the PCE price index ticked up, cutting bets on a FED rate cut in September.  Major indices were mixed with the biggest gain in the Nasdaq 100 and the biggest decline in emerging markets. 

Treasury bond yields were mixed with the 30-year bond yield at 4.992% and the 10-Year note at 4.233%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.56%.  Crude oil rose to $64.23 a barrel and natural gas rose to $2.952 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index rose to 97.76 and gold rose to $3,513.60 an ounce.

In economic reports last week:

• The Commerce Department Reported:
  • New home sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in July and were down 8.2% from July 2024.
  • The median sales price of a new home fell 0.8% to 403,800.

• • Durable goods orders fell a seasonally adjusted 2.8% in July following a 9.4% decrease in June.

• • The 2^nd quarter gross domestic product was revised to a 3.3% annual growth rate up from the initial estimate of 3.0%.
    • The increase was partly due to an increase in business investment in artificial intelligence.

• • Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.4% in July.
    • The PCE price index rose 0.2% and was up 2.6% from a year ago.
      • Excluding volatile food and energy, prices rose 0.3% and was up 2.9% year over year.  This is the FED’s preferred measure of inflation and was the highest reading since February.
    • Adjusted for inflation expenditures rose 0.3%.
    • Incomes rose 0.4%.
      • Adjusted for inflation real incomes rose 0.2%.
• The Labor Department reported:
  • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 229,000, down 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
    • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, were 228,500, an increase of 2500 from the previous week’s revised level.
    • Recurring claims were 1.954MM a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
  • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report.  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude oil rose from 13.382MM BPD to 13.439MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage rose 18BN cubic feet and was above its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs rose 1 to 412 and the number of natural gas rigs fell 3 to 122.

Please call us if you have any questions.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_071125.pdf

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index