Major stock indices rose through Thursday but fell Friday on new tariff threats, leaving major market indices mixed. It was a light week for economic data. 2nd quarter earnings started this week and kick into high gear next week.
OPEC+ met and decided to boost output by 548,000 barrels per day beginning in August. Still, oil prices rose on expectations of increased sanctions on Russia.
Treasury bond yields rose with the 30-year bond yield at 4.956% and the 10-Year note at 4.420%. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.72%. Crude oil rose to $68.64 a barrel and natural gas fell to $3.391 per MMBTUs. The U.S. dollar index fell to 97.87 and gold rose to $3371.10 an ounce.
In economic reports this week:
- The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit rose at a 1.2% annual rate in May.
- Revolving credit fell at a 3.2% rate.
- Nonrevolving credit rose at a 2.8% rate.
- The Treasury Department reported a surplus of $27BN in the month in June but a 1.337TN deficit since the beginning of the fiscal year on October 1st.
- This followed a $316BN deficit in May.
- The biggest factor for the surplus were some adjustments to the timing of receipts and outlays. Without the adjustments, June would have had a $70BN deficit.
- For example, June’s Social Security contributions were made in May rather than June 1st because it was on a weekend.
- From June of 2024, tariff income rose 301% to $27BN.
- Also, June saw an increase in income tax collections via quarterly estimated payments.
- The Commerce Department reported:
- Seasonally adjusted wholesale inventories fell 0.3% in May but were up 4.6% from last May.
- Seasonally adjusted wholesale inventories fell 0.3% in May but were up 4.6% from last May.
- The Labor Department reported seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 227,000, down 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
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- The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, were 235,500, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week’s revised level.
- Recurring claims rose 10,000 from the previous week revised level of 1.97MM. This is the highest since November of 2021.
- For the full unemployment report go here: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
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- The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
- Field production of crude oil fell from 13.433MM BPD to 13,385MM BPD.
- Natural gas storage rose 53BN cubic feet and was above its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
- Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs fell 1 to 424 and the number of natural gas rigs was unchanged at 108.
- Factset reported with 7% of S&P 500 companies reporting 2nd quarter earnings, that the blended earnings increase was 4.9%.
Please call us if you have any questions.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
