Major stock indices ended mixed for the week with the Dow Jones 30 Industrials having a modest gain and a very slight loss in the Nasdaq 100.  The consumer price index and producer price index came in stronger than expected and the International Monetary Fund increased its global inflation forecast.  Unemployment claims are still running very low despite the FED’s monetary tightening.  War breaking out in Israel drove up the price of oil and gold.  Also, likely sabotage to the pipeline supplying U.S. natural gas to Estonia via Finland contributed to energy uncertainty and gold price gains.  Companies began reporting 3^rd quarter earnings this week.

Treasury bond yields fell with the 30-year bond yield at 4.766% and the 10-Year note at 4.627%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.57%.  Crude oil rose to $87.72 a barrel and natural gas fell to $3.208 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index rose to 106.67 and gold soared to $1945.90 an ounce.

• The International Monetary Fund
  • Raised its 2024 global inflation forecast from 5.2% to 5.8% and encouraged central banks to keep monetary policy tight until price pressures ease.
  • Left its 2024 global growth forecast unchanged at 3.0%.
• The Labor Department reported:
  • The producer price index rose 0.5% in September, down from 0.7% in August.  Producer prices are up 2.2% from a year ago.
    • Excluding food, energy and trade services producer prices rose 0.2% in September and are up 2.8% from a year ago.
  • The consumer price index rose 0.4% in September, down from 0.6% in August. The index rose 3.7% from a year ago. 
    • Excluding volatile food and energy, consumer prices rose 0.3% in September and 4.1% from a year ago.
    • The biggest increase in September was in the cost of shelter, followed by gasoline.
  • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 209,000, unchanged from a revised 209,000 last week.
    • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, was 206,250, a decrease of 3000 from the previous week’s revised level. 
    • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf .
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf .  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude oil was rose from 12.9MM BPD to 13.2MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage rose 84BN cubic feet and is above the 5-year average at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of active oil rigs rose 4 to 501.  The number of active natural gas rigs fell 1 to 117.
• Factset reported with 6% of S&P 500 companies reporting 3^rd quarter earnings, the blended earnings decrease from last year was 0.3%.

Please call us if you have any questions.

Loren C. Rex, CFP^®, MA                                                                      Erik A Smith, AIF®

Founder / Emeritus                                                                            President & C.E.O.                                  

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm