Major stock indices ended the week mixed as 2^nd quarter earnings kicked into high gear.  The Nasdaq 100 and emerging markets had the biggest gains while the Dow 30 Industrials and Russell 2000 small cap stocks declined.  The Consumer Price Index rose faster in June but less than most projections.  Economic data added to the perception that the economy and employment is continuing to grow modestly but inflation is creeping higher lessening the likelihood of a FED rate cut later this month.

Treasury bond yields rose with the 30-year bond yield at 4.996% and the 10-Year note at 4.420%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.75%.  Crude oil fell to $67.36 a barrel and natural gas rose to $3.607 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index rose to 98.46 and gold fell to $3354.80 an ounce.

In economic reports last week:

• The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.3% in June after being unchanged in April and May.
  • Manufacturing rose 0.1%.
  • Mining, including oil and gas production, fell 0.3%.
  • Utilities rose 2.8%.
  • From a year ago, industrial production rose 0.7%.
• The Commerce Department reported:
  • Retail sales and food services rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in June following a revised 0.9% decline in May.
    • Year over year retail sales rose 3.9%.

• Housing starts rose a seasonally adjusted 4.6% in June but were down 0.5% from last June.
  • Single family housing starts fell 4.6%.
  • Multi family starts (5 or more units) rose 30.6%.
  • Permits, a sign of future housing starts rose 0.2% but were down 4.4% from last June.

• The Labor Department reported:
  • The Consumer Price Index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in June.  From last June the index has risen 2.7%.
    • Shelter rose 0.2%.
    • Energy rose 0.9%.
    • Food rose 0.3%.
    • Excluding volatile food and energy, the index rose 0.2% and was up 2.9% from a year ago.
    • The biggest increase was in medical care services which rose 0.6%.
    • The biggest decline was in used cars and trucks which fell 0.7%.

                Source: U.S. Department of Labor

• • The Producer Price Index was unchanged in June on a seasonally adjusted basis.
    • Excluding volatile food and energy and trade services, the index was also unchanged.
    • Goods prices rose 0.3%.
    • Services prices fell 0.1% largely due to a 4.1% decline in traveler accommodation services.  Airline passenger services fell 2.7%..
    • This follows an overall 0.3% decrease in April and an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in May.
    • From a year ago, the PPI has risen 2.3%.
  • Import prices rose 0.1% in June following a 0.4% decrease in May.
    • Fuel imports fell 0.7%.
    • Excluding fuel, imports also rose 0.1% and were up 1.2% year over year.
    • From a year ago import prices have fallen 0.2%, largely due to a 15.7% drop in fuel imports.
  • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 221,000, down 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
    • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, were 229,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised level.
    • Recurring claims rose 2,000 from the previous week revised level to 1.96MM.
    • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report.  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude oil fell from 13.385MM BPD to 13.375MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage rose 46BN cubic feet and was above its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs fell 2 to 422 and the number of natural gas rigs rose 9 to 117.
• Factset reported with 12% of S&P 500 companies reporting 2^nd quarter earnings, that the blended earnings increase was 5.6%.

Please call us if you have any questions.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_071125.pdf

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm

https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf