Major stock indices ended the week mixed with the best performance in developed international and emerging markets. The biggest decline was in the Russell 2000 small cap index.
Most federal government data was not released this week due to the shutdown.
Treasury bond yields fell with the 30-year bond yield at 4.601% and the 10-Year note at 4.007%. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.27%. Crude oil fell to $57.52 a barrel and natural gas fell to $2.995 per MMBTUs. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.41 and gold rose to $4238.60 an ounce.
In economic reports this week:
- The private OpenBrand measure of inflation on durables and personal goods rose 0.58% in September following a 0.45% increase in August.
- The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth prediction for 2025 to 3.2%, down from 3.3% in 2024. For 2026 the IMF is predicting 3.1% growth. For the U.S. growth is predicted to be 2.0% in 2025 down from 2.8% in 2024. 2026 is predicted to be 2.1%. The downward revision was attributed to front load purchases in 2025 to beat expected tariffs.
- The Treasury Department released its report for September and the fiscal year ending in September. While September has a surplus of $198BN the deficit for the fiscal year was $1.775TN.
Source: U.S. Treasury Department
- The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
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- Field production of crude oil rose from 13.629MM BPD to 13.639MM BPD.
- Natural gas storage rose 80BN cubic feet and was above its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
- Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs was unchanged at 418 and the number of natural gas rigs rose 1 to 121.
Please call us if you have any questions.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025
