It was a volatile week as weakening consumer sentiment, economic data and fear over tariffs, tanked stocks until a weaker than expected PCI price index release on Friday.  Major stock indices ended the week mixed with the biggest gain in the Dow 30 Industrials and the biggest loss in emerging markets.

Treasury bond yields fell with the 30-year bond yield at 4.530% and the 10-Year note at 4.251%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.76%.  Crude oil rose to $69.38 a barrel and natural gas fell to $3.903 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index rose to 107.26 and gold fell to $2853.10 an ounce.

In economic reports this week:

• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index fell 0.15% in December.
  • From a year ago, the index was up 3.92%.
• The Commerce Department reported:
  • New home sales fell a seasonally adjusted 10.5% in January from December and were down 1.1% from last January.

• • Durable goods orders rose 3.1% in January following a revised 1.8% decline in December.

• The personal consumption price index rose 0.3% in January and was up 2.5% from a year ago.
  • Excluding volatile food and energy, the index rose 0.3% in January and was up 2.6% year over year.

• • In January:
    • Personal consumption expenditures fell 0.2% affected by cold weather.
      • The biggest drop was in automobiles and auto parts.
      • The biggest increase was in housing and utilities.
    • Personal incomes rose 0.9%.
    • Personal savings rate rose to 4.6% of income.

• The Labor department reported:
  • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level.  
    • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, was 224,000 an increase of 8500 from the previous week’s revised level.
    • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf .
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report.  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude oil rose from 13.497MM BPD to 13.502MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage fell 261BN cubic feet and was below its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs fell 2 to 486 and the number of natural gas rigs rose 3 to 102.
• Factset reported with 97% of S&P 500 companies reporting, the average earnings increase was 18.2%.

Please call us if you have any questions.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/current.html