The partial government shutdown has entered its fourth week. The Labor Department called back employees, despite the shutdown, to issue the Consumer Price Index for the month of September. This report was critical as it is used to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security which was announced Friday at 2.8%. Consumer prices increased more in September than August, but the increase was less than expected which caused a market rally on Friday in anticipation of further rate cuts.
Treasury bond yields fell with the 30-year bond yield at 4.575% and the 10-Year note at 4.005%. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.19%. Crude oil rose to $61.47 a barrel and natural gas rose to $3.339 per MMBTUs. The U.S. dollar rose to 98.94 and gold fell to $4125.90 an ounce.
In economic reports last week:
- The Labor Department called back employees for the purpose of releasing the consumer price index. For the month of September, the CPI rose 0.3% down from 0.4% in August. From a year ago, the CPI was up 3.0% in September up from 2.9% in August.
- Excluding volatile food and energy, the CPI was up 0.2% down from 0.3% in August. From a year earlier, excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 3.0%.
- Excluding volatile food and energy, the CPI was up 0.2% down from 0.3% in August. From a year earlier, excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 3.0%.
- The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
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- Field production of crude oil fell from 13.636MM BPD to 13.629MM BPD.
- Natural gas storage rose 87BN cubic feet and was above its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
- Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs rose 2 to 420 and the number of natural gas rigs was unchanged at 121.
- Factset reported with 29% of S&P 500 companies reporting that the blended earnings increase was 9.2%.
Please call us if you have any questions.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators
