Stocks sold off sharply on Friday, on reports that the U.S. China trade talks have broken down over rare earth minerals and threats of much higher tariffs on Chinese goods. The U.S. is dependent on China for rare earth minerals for many different applications and these new limits could have negative economic impacts. For the week, stocks saw substantial losses with the biggest drop in emerging markets.
OPEC+ met and chose to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in November.
Federal government data was not released this week due to the shutdown.
Treasury bond yields rose with the 30-year bond yield at 4.772% and the 10-Year note at 4.139%. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.30%. Crude oil rose to $61.60 a barrel and natural gas fell to $3.246 per MMBTUs. The U.S. dollar index rose to 99.40 and gold rose to $4008.50 an ounce.
In economic reports last week:
- The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its estimate of the federal deficit for the fiscal year ending September 30th at 1.809TN only 8BN less than in fiscal year 2024.
- Goldman Sachs estimated that unemployment claims rose to 235,000 for the week ending 10/04/2025 up from 224,000 in the prior week.
- Canada reported adding 60,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1%.
- The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
- Field production of crude oil rose from 13.505MM BPD to 13.629MM BPD.
- Field production of crude oil rose from 13.505MM BPD to 13.629MM BPD.
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- Natural gas storage rose 80BN cubic feet and was above its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
- Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs fell 4 to 418 and the number of natural gas rigs rose 2 to 120.
Please call us if you have any questions.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61306
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/251010/dq251010a-eng.htm
