Blog Post

Stocks Ended Another Week Mixed

Most major indices closed higher except for developed international and emerging markets stocks.  The consumer price index and the producer price index, year over year numbers, eased in September, but core consumer prices rising 3.2% are still above the FED’s target.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from their last meeting.  Fed officials were divided on whether to cut 0.25% versus 0.5%.

Social security announced a cost-of-living increase of 2.5% in 2025.

Treasury bond yields rose with the 30-year bond yield at 4.388% and the 10-Year note at 4.097%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.32%.  Crude oil fell to $75.01 a barrel and natural gas fell to $2.664 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index rose to 103.01 and gold fell to $2640.10 an ounce.

In economic reports this week:

  • The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1%.
    • Revolving credit fell 1.2%.
    • Non-revolving credit rose 3.3%.
  • The Commerce Department reported:
    • The trade deficit fell 10.1% in August as exports rose and imports fell.
    • Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% in August.
  • The Labor department reported:
    • The consumer price index rose 0.2% in September and is up 2.4% from a year ago.  The year over year figure fell from 2.5% in August.
      • Excluding volatile food and energy, the index rose 0.3% and is up 3.3% from a year ago.  The year over year figure rose from 3.2% in August.
      • The biggest increase in September was in transportation services at 1.4%.  The biggest decrease was in fuel oil that fell 6.0%.
    • The producer price index was unchanged in September.  Goods prices fell 0.2% while services rose 0.2%.
      • From a year ago the PPI rose 1.8%.
      • Excluding food, energy and trade services the PPI rose 0.1% in September and is up 3.2% from a year ago.
    • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 258,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week’s revised level.  The sharp uptick was attributed to hurricane Helene and job cuts in the auto industry.
      • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, was 231,000 an increase of 6750 from the previous week’s revised level. 
      • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf .
  • The EIA weekly oil report is here: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf .  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
    • Field production of crude oil rose from 13.3MM BPD to tie its record at 13.4MM BPD.
    • Natural gas storage rose 82BN cubic feet and is above the average level during the past five years at this time of year.
  • Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs rose 2 to 481 and the number of natural gas rigs fell 1 to 104.

Factset reported with 6% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q3 earnings the blended earnings increase is 4.1% from a year ago.

Please call us if you have any questions.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

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