Stocks rose this week despite the government shutdown that began on Wednesday. This prevented the release of some government economic data, including the September jobs report. The private ADP report, that does not include government jobs, showed employment declined in September. This may have spurred bets of additional FED rate cuts this year. The biggest gains were in developed international stocks with the smallest in the Nasdaq 100.
Treasury bond yields fell with the 30-year bond yield at 4.709% and the 10-Year note at 4.112%. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.34%. Crude oil fell to $61.06 a barrel and natural gas rose to $3.362 per MMBTUs. The U.S. dollar index fell to 97.73 and gold rose to $3907.30 an ounce.
In economic reports last week:
- The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index fell 0.16% in July but was up 1.68% from a year ago.
- ADP reported on Wednesday that private employers cut 32,000 jobs in September. Normally, we do not report ADP data as the government report including all non-farm employment, including government comes out on Friday. Sine the Labor Department report was delayed due to the shutdown, we are reporting the ADP number.
- S&P Global released its purchasing managers indices for September. Remember that anything over 50 represents expansion and anything under 50 represents contraction.
- U.S. manufacturing PMI fell from 53.0 to 52.0.
- U.S. services PMI fell from 54.5 to 54.2.
- Mexico manufacturing PMI fell from 50.2 to 49.6.
- Canada manufacturing PMI fell from 48.3 to 47.7.
- Canada services PMI fell from 48.6 to 46.3.
- China manufacturing PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.2.
- China services PMI fell from 53.0 to 52.9.
- Japan manufacturing PMI fell from 49.7 to 48.5.
- Japan services PMI rose from 53.1 to 53.3.
- Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell from 50.7 to 49.8.
- Eurozone services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.3.
- Marklines reported that U.S. car sales fell 14% in the month of September but were up 5.8% from September of 2024. September is normally a soft month, and the monthly numbers are not seasonally adjusted. September’s increase from last year is attributed to the deadline for electric and hybrid vehicle subsidies which expired at the end of September.
- The Labor Department reported:
- Job openings were practically unchanged at 7.2MM.
- The hiring rate was down slightly to 3.2%.
- Total separations were also at 3.2%.
- Quits were down slightly to 1.9%.
- Layoff were unchanged at 1.1%.
- Job openings were practically unchanged at 7.2MM.
- The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
- Field production of crude rose from 13,501MM BPD to 13,505MM BPD.
- Natural gas storage rose 53BN cubic feet and was above its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
- Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs fell 2 to 422 and the number of natural gas rigs rose 1 to 118.
Please call us if you have any questions.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
