Major market indices ended the week with gains.  Markets soared on Thursday as the Consumer Price Index increase, while higher, was within expectations and layoff’s rose to nearly a four year high, increasing the likelihood of a FED cut this month.

OPEC+ met and decided to increase production by 137,000 BPD in October, a smallest increase than in the previous two months, citing slowing economic growth.

Treasury bond yields fell with the 30-year bond yield at 4.682% and the 10-Year note at 4.032%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.35%.  Crude oil rose to $62.68 a barrel and natural gas fell to $2.994 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index fell to 97.62 and gold rose to $3,671.90 an ounce.

In economic reports last week:

• The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8% in July.
  • Revolving credit rose 9.7%.
  • Nonrevolving credit rose 1.8%.
• Marklines reported that U.S. auto sales rose 2.3% in August.
  • EV sales have surged before the expiration of EV credits at the end of September.
• The Treasury Department reported the Federal budget for August.
  • In August the deficit was $354BN.
  • For the fiscal year, since 10/01/2024 the deficit was $1.973TN.

              Source: Department of Treasury

• The Commerce Department Reported:
  • Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% in July.
• The Labor Department reported:
  • Issued its annual revision for jobs creation for the year ending in March down by 911,000 or -0.6%.
    • Over the past 10 years the revision has averaged 0.2% of the total for the year.
  • The Consumer Price Index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in August and has risen 2.9% from a year ago.
    • Excluding volatile food and energy, the index rose 0.3% and was up 3.1% year over year.
    • The biggest increase in August was for gasoline at 1.9%.
    • Utility prices fell 1.6%.
  • The Producer Price Index fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in August after rising 0.7% in July and 0.1% in June.
    • From a year ago the PPI has risen 2.6%.
    • Excluding volatile food and energy the PPI rose 0.3% in August.
    • From last August, excluding food and energy, the PPI has risen 2.8%.
  • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 263,000, up 27,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This was the highest level in nearly four years.
    • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, were 240,500, an increase of 9,750 from the previous week’s revised level.
    • Recurring claims were 1.939MM unchanged from the previous week’s revised level.
  • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report.  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude rose fell from 13.423MM BPD to 13,495MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage rose 71BN cubic feet and was above its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs rose 2 to 416 and the number of natural gas rigs was unchanged at 118.

Please call us if you have any questions.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.nr0.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm