While there was some profit taking during the week, markets finished the first full week of the year on a constructive note, with most major indices posting modest gains. Small-cap stocks led the advance, reflecting improved risk appetite among investors.
Energy markets were also in focus. OPEC+ met and elected to leave production levels unchanged. Over the course of 2025, the group has increased output by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day—roughly 3% of global supply—helping keep energy prices relatively contained despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Trade data showed a sharp narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit in October, though much of the improvement stemmed from shifts in gold flows. Earlier in the year, investors imported gold amid tariff concerns. As those concerns eased and tariffs on imported gold were scaled back, much of that gold was returned to storage locations abroad, including Switzerland.
On the labor front, December job creation remained positive but fell short of economists’ expectations, reinforcing the narrative of a cooling—but still resilient—labor market.
Treasury Yields (lower on the week)
- 30-year Treasury: 4.831%
- 10-year Treasury: 4.170%
Mortgage Rates
- Average 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.16% (higher)
Commodities & Currency
- Crude oil: $59.18 per barrel (higher)
- Natural gas: $2.678 (lower)
- U.S. dollar index: 99.12 (higher)
- Gold: $4,520.70 per ounce (higher)
S&P Global Services Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMI) (Above 50=expansion, Below 50=contraction)
- U.S. 52.5, (lower)
- Canada 46.5 (higher)
- Eurozone 52.4 (higher)
- China 52.0 (lower)
- Japan manufacturing 50.0 (higher)
- Japan services 51.6 (lower)
Marklines U.S. Auto Sales
- December -2.5% from last December.
- Year 2025 +1.9% vs 2024.
Commerce Department Manufactured goods orders -1.3% in October.
- October U.S. Trade:
- October Housing
- Starts -4.6%.
- Single Family +5.4%.
- Multi Family -25.9%.
- Permits -0.2%.
- Starts -4.6%.
Labor Department
Jobless Claims (Week Ending January 2nd)
- Initial claims: 208,000 (+8,000)
- Four-week average: 211,750 (-7,250)
- Total unemployed: 1,914,000 (+56,000)
November JOLTS Report
- Job Openings: 7.15MM, the lowest in over a year.
- Layoffs: 1.7MM or 1.1%, a six-month low.
- Quits: 3.2MM or 2.0%.
Third Quarter
- Productivity: +4.9%
- Output: +5.4%
- Hourly Compensation: +2.9%
- Unit Labor Costs: -1.9%
December Jobs Report
- +50,000
- 2025 total +584,000, weakest since 2020.
- Unemployment 4.4%
- Hourly earnings +0.3%, year over year 3.8% to $37.02.
- Average work week -0.1 hour to 34.2 hours.
- October revised from -105,000 to -173,000.
- November revised from +64,000 down to +56,000.
Energy & Industry Data
Energy Information Administration
- Weekly Oil Production 13.811million barrels. (decrease)
- Natural Gas Storage fell 119 billion CuFt and is above the average level for this time of year.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
- Oil rigs: -3 to 409
- Gas rigs: -1 to 124
If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases
