Stocks recovered from sharp losses last Friday and Monday. The recovery was fueled by growth in the services PMI indices and fewer first time claims for unemployment. For the week, including Monday, major stock indices were little changed with modest gains in developed international and emerging markets and modest declines in most of the other indices.
On July 31st, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate from zero to 0.25%.
Treasury bond yields rose with the 30-year bond yield at 4.224% and the 10-Year note at 3.944%. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell sharply to 6.47%. Crude oil rose to $77.00 a barrel and natural gas rose to $2.157 per MMBTUs. The U.S. dollar index fell to 103.14 and gold fell to $2468.30 an ounce.
In economic reports this week:
- The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit expanded at a seasonally adjusted 2.1% annual rate in June and 2.4% annual rate for the first quarter.
- Revolving credit fell at a 1.5% annual in June.
- Non-revolving credit rose at a 3.4% rate in June.
- S&P Global released its services purchasing manager’s indices for July. Keep in mind that anything over 50 represents expansion and anything under 50 represents contraction.
- U.S. services PMI fell from 55.3 to 55.0.
- Canada services PMI rose from 47.1 to 47.3.
- Eurozone services PMI was fell from 52.8 to 51.9.
- China services PMI rose from 51.2 to 52.1.
- Japan services PMI rose from 49.4 to 53.7..
- The Commerce Department reported:
- The trade deficit fell 2.5% in June.
- Exports rose 1.5%.
- Imports rose 0.6%.
- The trade deficit fell 2.5% in June.
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- Wholesale Inventories rose 0.2% in June.
- Wholesale Inventories rose 0.2% in June.
- The Labor department reported:
- Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 233,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
- The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, was 240,750, an increase of 2500 from the previous week’s revised level.
- For the full unemployment report go here: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf .
- Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 233,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
- The EIA weekly oil report is here: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf . Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
- Field production of crude was rose from 13.3MM BPD to 13.4MM BPD, a new record.
- Natural gas storage rose 21BN cubic feet and is about at the highest level during the past five years at this time of year.
- Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs rose 3 to 485 and the number of natural gas rigs fell 1 to 97.
- Earnings Insight reported with 91% of the S&P 500 reporting, the blended earnings increase was 10.8%.
Please call us if you have any questions.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-08/trad0624.pdf
