Blog Post

Stocks Rise As Traders Anticipate the End of FED Tightening

Major stock indices ended the week higher, led by technology shares, as traders anticipate the end of FED tightening.  The rally continued Friday following a weaker than expected gain in the personal consumption expenditures price index.  Also contributing to the gains were subsiding fears about banking problems from a few weeks ago.

Treasury bond yields rose with the 30-year bond yield rising to 3.661% and the 10-Year note fall to 3.485%.  Freddie Mac reported that 30-year mortgage rates fell to 6.32%.  Crude oil rose to $75.58 a barrel and natural gas fell to $2.191 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index fell to 102.58 and gold rose to $1987.40 an ounce.

  • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in January.  From a year earlier it was up 3.8% but lower than 5.6% year over year in December. 
  • The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales rose 0.8% in February, following 12 months of declines.
    • From a year earlier, pending home sales have dropped 21.1%.
  • Eurostat, reported year over year Eurozone inflation fell to 6.9% in March, down from 8.5% in January.
    • The decline was largely attributed to a 0.9% decline in energy prices that were elevated last year.
    • Price increases for food, tobacco and alcoholic drinks rose from 15.0% in February to 15.4% in March.
    • Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy rose from 5.6% in February to 5.7% in March.
  • The Commerce Department reported:
    • Revised fourth quarter gross domestic product to 2.6% annualized growth, down from 2.7% in the previous revision.
      • Exports and consumer spending were revised down.
    • Personal Consumption Expenditures, PCE, a measure of consumer spending, rose 0.2% in February.
    • The PCE price index rose 0.3% in February and is up 5.0% from a year ago.
      • Excluding volatile food and energy the PCE index rose 0.3%.  This is the FED’s preferred measure of inflation.
    • Adjusted for inflation, PCE fell 0.1% in February.
    • Personal incomes rose 0.3%.
  • The Labor Department reported:
    • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 198,000 up from 191,000 in the prior week.
      • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, was 198,250 up from 196,250 in the prior week.
      • For the full unemployment report go here: .
  • The EIA weekly oil report is here: .  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
    • Field production of crude oil fell from 12.3MM BPD to 12.2MM BPD.
    • Natural gas storage fell 47BN cubic feet and is above the 5-year average at this time of year.
  • Baker Hughes reported the number of active oil rigs fell 1 to 592.  The number of active natural gas rigs fell 2 to 160.

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Thank you,

Loren C. Rex, CFP®, MA                                                                     Erik A Smith, AIF®

Founder / Emeritus                                                                            President & C.E.O.                                  269-441-4143                                                                                    517-795-2025

Registered Representative of and securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisor Representative, Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Cambridge and Generations Financial Planning & Wealth Management are separate companies and are not affiliated.

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.


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