Stocks ended the week lower while oil prices soared as the conflict with Iran intensified. All major market indices ended the week lower with the biggest declines in emerging markets and developed international indices. Disruptions to middle east output pushed crude prices sharply higher, adding to investor concerns about inflation and global economic growth.
Market sentiment weakened further after February employment data showed job losses. Adding to the uncertainty, President Trump stated that the United States would accept no negotiated settlement with Iran short of the country’s unconditional surrender, signaling the potential for a prolonged conflict.
Treasury Yields
- 30-year Treasury: 4.766% (higher)
- 10-year Treasury: 4.133% (higher)
Mortgage Rates
- Average 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.00% (higher)
Commodities & Currency
- Crude oil: $91.27 per barrel (much higher)
- Natural gas: $3.812 (higher)
- U.S. dollar index: 96.86 (higher)
- Gold: $5,181.30 per ounce (lower)
- Silver $84.690 per ounce (lower)
S&P Global Purchasing Manager Indices (February), >50=expansion, <50=contraction
- U.S. manufacturing 51.6 (lower)
- U.S. services 51.7 (lower)
- China manufacturing 52.1 (higher)
- China services 56.7 (much higher)
- Canada manufacturing 51.0 (higher)
- Canada services 46.5 (higher)
- Mexico manufacturing 47.1 (higher)
- Japan manufacturing 53.0 (higher)
- Japan services 53.8 (higher)
- Eurozone manufacturing 49.5 (higher)
- Eurozone services 51.9 (higher)
Labor Department
Jobless Claims (prior week)
- New Claims 213,000
- 4-week Moving Average 215,750 (lower)
- Total Claims 1,868,000 (higher)
Productivity +2.8% Q4
- Real hourly compensation +3.1% Q4 and +1.3% 2025.
- Unit labor costs +2.8% Q4 and +1.3% 2025.
Import Prices +0.2% (January), -0.1% (12 months)
- Import prices do not include the effect of tariffs.
- Excluding fuel +0.5% (January), +1.2% 12 months.
Export Prices +0.6% (January), +2.6% (12 months)
February Jobs
- -92,000
- Unemployment 4.4% (higher)
- Average hourly earnings $37.32, +0.4% (February) and +3.8% (12 months)
Energy & Industry Data
Energy Information Administration
- Weekly Oil Production 13.696 million barrels (lower)
- Natural Gas Storage -42 billion CuFt, below the average for this time of year over the past 5 years.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
- Oil rigs: +4 at 411
- Gas rigs: -2 at 132
(All data is as of the week of 03/02/2026)
If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.
Loren Rex – Emeritus
Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.
Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor
Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor
These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).
Sources:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection
https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_03062026.htm
