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Stocks Slip as Rising Oil Prices and Bond Yields Pressure Markets

Major stock indices closed the week modestly lower as a sharp rise in oil prices and higher Treasury bond yields weighed on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 led the declines, while emerging market stocks proved relatively resilient, posting the smallest losses among the major asset classes.

Despite another week of strong corporate earnings growth, concerns surrounding the conflict with Iran and its potential impact on global energy supplies overshadowed positive fundamentals. Higher oil prices also renewed inflation concerns, contributing to the rise in bond yields and adding pressure to equity markets.

Adding to those concerns, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983, limiting the nation’s emergency oil cushion at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

As investors look ahead, market direction will likely depend on developments in the Middle East, the trajectory of oil prices and interest rates, and whether continued earnings strength can offset geopolitical risks.


Treasury Yields

• 30-year Treasury: 5.158% (higher)

• 10-year Treasury: 4.705% (higher)

Mortgage Rates

• Average 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.58% (higher)

Commodities & Currency

  • U.S. dollar index: 101.46 (higher)
  • Crude oil: $92.14 per barrel (much higher)
  • Natural gas: $2.884 (lower)
  • Gold: $4,051.40 per ounce (higher)
  • Silver $58.850 per ounce (higher)

Commerce Department

New Home Sales, June

  • +1.6%
  • Median sales price of a new home $398,300, -3.3% month and -2.7% year
  • Months’ supply of new homes 9.3 months, -1.1%.

Labor Department

Jobless Claims (prior week)

  • New Claims 187,000 (lower)
  • 4-week Moving Average 207,500 (lower)
  • Total Claims 1,796,000 (lower)

Energy & Industry Data

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Energy Information Administration

  • Weekly Oil Production 13.798 million barrels (lower)
  • Natural Gas Storage +32 billion Ft3, above average for this time of year over the past 5 years.

Baker Hughes Rig Count

  • Oil rigs: -2 at 450
  • Gas rigs: +1 at 127

Q2 Earnings FactSet Reported with 27% of S&P 500 companies reporting, Q2 earnings are up 37.9% from last year.


(All data was released the week of 07/20/2026)

(All monthly statistics are seasonally adjusted unless stated otherwise).

If you have questions about the markets or your financial plan, we’re always here to help.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

Nicholas Acri, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Dylan Thomas, CFP® – Partner & Wealth Advisor

Jack Zeeb – Wealth Advisor

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes summary – 2026 M05 Results

FactSet Earnings Insight