Blog Post

The Past Week in the Markets

Stocks ended the week with US stocks modestly higher and foreign stocks lower.  The US-China trade war hit a cease fire as both sides agreed not to increase tariffs further and to restart negotiations.  President Trump also agreed to lift the ban on U.S. companies selling to Huawei.  Stocks declined on Friday following a better than expected jobs increase in June.  This was the good news is bad news effect on the markets as a stronger jobs number lessens the likelihood or magnitude of a FED rate cut.

The 10-year Treasury note ended at 2.037% and the U.S Dollar rose against a basket of currencies  Crude oil ended the week lower at $57.73 and gold ended higher at $1401.2.

In the numbers this week:

  • The Institute for Supply Management reported:
    • Manufacturing PMI index fell from 52.1 in May to 51.7 in June.  Keep in mind that anything over 50 represents expansion, just at a slower rate of acceleration.
    • Services PMI index fell from 56.9 in May to 55.1 in June.
  • The private China Caixin indexes show:
    • Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.2 in May to 49.4 in June indicating contraction.
    • Services PMI fell from 52.7 in May to 52.0 in June.
  • The Commerce Department reported the trade deficit in goods and services rose 8.4% in May as imports grew by the fast rate in four years.  Exports saw a more modest increase.
  • The Labor Department reported
    • First time claims for unemployment fell 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000.  The four week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out weekly fluctuations, rose to 222,250.
    • 224,000 jobs were created in June beating expectations.  The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.6% to 3.7% as more people re-entered the workforce that there were jobs created.
  • The Energy Information Administration weekly report is here wpsrsummary.  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
    • U.S. Crude oil production increased from 12.1MM barrels per day to 12.2MM barrels per day.
    • Storage of natural gas rose 89BN cubic feet and is still below the past five year average for this time of year.
    • Baker Hughes reported in the past week that the number of active oil rigs fell 5 to 788 and the number of active gas rigs rose 1 to 174.

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Best Regards,

Loren C. Rex, CFP®, AIF®, MA                                                         Erik A Smith

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Registered Representative of and securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC.  Investment Advisor Representative, Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.  Cambridge and Generations Financial Planning & Wealth Management are separate companies and are not affiliated.

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice.  The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.



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