U.S. stock indices ended the holiday shortened week lower as concerns grew over a slowing economy.  The biggest loss was in the Dow 30 Industrials while emerging markets ended higher.  It was a light week for economic data. 

The FED released minutes from their January meeting.  Members expressed concern that trade and immigration changes could hinder the disinflation process.

Treasury bond yields rose with the 30-year bond yield at 4.739% and the 10-Year note at 4.503%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.85%.  Crude oil rose to $73.00 a barrel and natural gas rose to $4.073 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index fell to 106.53 and gold rose to $2959 an ounce.

In economic reports this week:

• The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales fell a seasonally adjusted 4.9% in January but were up 2.0% from last January. 
  • The median price of an existing home was $396,900 up 4.8% from a year ago.
  • The inventory or unsold homes rose 0.5 month to 3.5 months.
• The Commerce Department reported:
  • Housing starts fell a seasonally adjusted 9.8% in January from December and were down 0.7% from January 2024.
    • Permits, an indication of future housing starts, rose 0.1% in January and were down 1.7% year-over-year.
    • Completions rose 7.6% in January and were up 9.8% from a year ago.

• The Labor department reported:
  • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 219,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level.  
    • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, was 215,250 a decrease of 1000 from the previous week’s revised level.
    • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf .
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: Weekly Petroleum Status Report.  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude oil rose from 13.494MM BPD to 13.497MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage fell 196BN cubic feet and was below its average level during the past five years at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs rose 7 to 488 and the number of natural gas rigs fell 2 to 99.
• Factset skipped reporting last week with the next report coming February 28.

Please call us if you have any questions.

Loren Rex – Emeritus

Erik A Smith, AIF® – President & C.E.O.

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange (more than 2500 stocks).

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/current.html