The Russian invasion of Ukraine roiled global market this week with a big selloff followed by a sharp buy on the dip rally on Thursday and Friday pushing most U.S. indices positive with the NASDAQ down very slightly.  Foreign developed markets and emerging markets indices were further negative for the week.  Significant sanctions on Russia have been put in place but further steps are being considered by the U.S. and its allies.     

Treasury yields rose in the holiday shortened week with the 30-year bond yield up to 2.273% and the 10-Year note at 1.970%.  Crude oil fell to $92.26 a barrel and natural gas rose to $4.497 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index rose to 96.56 and gold rose to $1890.80 an ounce.

In the economic numbers:

• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was up 18.8% for the year in December.  That was unchanged from the 18.8% rise year over year in November.
• The Commerce Department reported:
  • Revised 4^th quarter gross domestic product annual growth rate of 7.0% up from 6.9%
  • New home sales fell 4.5% in January from December.
    • Inflation and higher mortgage rates were attributed to the decline.
    • 26% of new homes sold have not yet started construction.
  • Consumer spending rose 2.1% in January, following a 0.8% decline in December.
  • Personal Income was unchanged in January.
  • The personal-consumption price index, the FED’s preferred measure of inflation was up 6.1% in January from a year ago.
  • Durable goods orders rose 1.6% in January.
    • Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.9% in January.
  • The personal savings rate fell from 8.25% in December to 6.4% in January.
• The Labor Department reported :
  • First time claims for unemployment were 232,000, down from the prior week’s revised 249,000. 
  • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, fell to 236,250.
  • Continuing claims fell to 1.476MM in the week ending February 12^th .  
  • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf .
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf .  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude oil was unchanged at 11.6MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage fell 129BN cubic feet and is below the 5-year average at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of active oil rigs rose 2 to 522.  The number of active natural gas rigs was rose 3 to 127.

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Loren C. Rex, CFP^®, MA                                                                     Erik A Smith, AIF®

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 These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice.  The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.