Blog Post

Weekly Market Commentary – Battle Creek

U.S. stocks ended lower this week as a slightly lower than expected September jobs number disappointed expectations of growth but was not enough to stall an expected FED rate increase in December.  The British pound weakened against other currencies as the prospects increased for a more rapid and harder split of the U.K. from the EU became apparent.  This was exasperated by a flash crash early Friday blamed on computer trading.  Treasury yields rose as prices fell in anticipation of the FED raising rates.  Commodities and the dollar both gained.

In the numbers this week:

  • The Institute for Supply Management reported:
    • The ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.5 in September from 49.4 in August. Since the index is over 50 this represents a shift to expansion from contraction.
    • The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 57.1 in September from 50.4 in August representing a sharp acceleration of services sector activity.
  • Markit Economics also reported an uptick in its global PMI index in September with improvement in China in particular:world-pmi pmi-by-area
  • The Commerce Department reported
    • The trade deficit rose a seasonally adjusted 3% in August from July. Exports of soybeans were especially strong following a good U.S. harvest, strong Chinese demand and a shortfall in South American production.  However, imports rose even more with oil and Olympic broadcasting rights accounting for much of the increase in the August deficit.  For the first eight months of the year the trade deficit rose 1.3%.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported in the prior week:
    • Crude oil inventories fell 3.0MM barrels.
    • Daily Crude oil production fell 30,000 barrels.
    • Gasoline inventories rose 200,000 barrels.
  • Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil drilling rigs increased 3 to 428 in the prior week. The number of gas rigs decreased 2 to 94.
  • The Labor Department reported
    • First time claims for unemployment fell 5,000 to 249,000. The four week moving average of claims fell 2,250 to 253,500.
    • S. payrolls 159,000 in September, less than the 170,000 forecasted by economists. Also, the unemployment rate rose to 5.0%.
  • According to Autodata U.S. car sales fell 0.5% in September. Still vehicles sold at an annual pace of 17.76MM vehicles.

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Best Regards,

Loren C. Rex, CFP®, AIF®                                                                         Erik Smith

President                                                                                                         Partner

Generations Financial Planning & Wealth Management                     269-441-4143

77 E. Michigan Ave, Suite 140

Battle Creek, MI  49017

Tel  269-441-4090

Carrie Fuce, Assistant 269-441-4091

Toll Free: 800-513-8180

Fax  269-441-4093

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Registered Representative of and securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC.  Investment Advisor Representative, Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.  Cambridge and Generations Financial Planning & Wealth Management are separate companies and are not affiliated.

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice.


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