Major stock indices were mixed with the Nasdaq Composite ending the week higher and developed international and emerging markets ending the week lower.  While the U.S. gained 199,000 jobs in November, that number was elevated due to the end of the UAW strike.  The number of job openings have been falling, lending credence to the idea that the U.S. may have a soft-landing next year and not a recession.  The Federal Reserve will meet this week, with the most likely outcome is another pause.  However, traders will be focused on comments, coming out of the meeting, with bets on rate cuts coming sometime next year.

Treasury bond yields were mixed with the 30-year bond yield at 4.315% and the 10-Year note at 4.233%.  Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 7.03%.  Crude oil fell to $71.20 a barrel and natural gas fell to $2.546 per MMBTUs.  The U.S. dollar index rose to 103.98 and gold fell to $2018.60 an ounce.

• S&P Global released its services purchasing managers indices for November.  Keep in mind that anything over 50 represents expansion and anything under 50 represents contraction.
  • U.S. rose from 50.6 to 50.8.
  • Canada fell from 46.6 to 44.5.
  • Eurozone rose from 47.8 to 48.7.
  • China rose from 50.4 to 51.5.
  • Japan fell from 51.6 to 50.8.
• The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit grew at a 1.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in October.
  • Revolving credit rose 2.7%.
  • Non-revolving credit rose 0.7%.
• The Commerce Department reported:
  • New orders for manufactured goods fell 3.6% in October.

• • The U.S. Trade Deficit rose 5.1% in October as exports fell and imports rose.

• • Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% in October, but the ratio of inventories to sales increased.

• The Labor Department reported:
  • Job openings in October fell to 8.7MM.
    • 3.6MM people quit their jobs.
    • There were approximately 1.3 jobs for every unemployed worker.
  • Non-farm labor productivity rose 5.2% in the third quarter.  Increasing productivity allows increased wages without adding to inflation.
    • Output increased 6.1%.
    • Hours worked rose 0.9%.
    • From a year ago, productivity has risen 2.2%.
  • Non-farm payrolls increased by 199,000 in November, beating expectations.
    • The unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.7%.
    • Hourly wages rose 0.4%.  From a year ago hourly wages have increased 4.0%.
    • The average workweek rose from 34.3 hours to 34.4 hours.
  • Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment were 220,000, an increase from the previous week’s revised level of 219,000.
    • The 4-week moving average of claims, designed to smooth out volatility, was 220,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised level. 
    • For the full unemployment report go here:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf .
• The EIA weekly oil report is here: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf .  Also, the EIA reported in the prior week:
  • Field production of crude oil fell from 13.2MM BPD to 13.1MM BPD.
  • Natural gas storage fell 117BN cubic feet and is above the 5-year average at this time of year.
• Baker Hughes reported the number of active oil rigs was fell 2 to 503.  The number of active natural gas rigs rose 3 to 119.

Please call us if you have any questions.

Loren C. Rex, CFP^®, MA                                                                      Erik A Smith, AIF®

Founder / Emeritus                                                                            President & C.E.O.                                  

These are the opinions of Loren Rex and Erik Smith and are not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. The Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Sources:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

https://www.wsj.com/market-data?mod=nav_top_subsection

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count

https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm